Joe Middleton in the Edinburgh Evening News, March 31 2007.

Things are looking good for the Scottish independence movement. The Scottish National Party are riding high in the opinion polls, which regularly show a majority for independence (if you exclude the don't knows). The SNP also has new allies; the Scottish Green Party and Scottish Socialist Party support independence and are working together in the Scottish independence convention. There are also two major new parties which support independence - the anti-EU Free Scotland Party and Tommy Sheridan's Solidarity.

Unfortunately, the odds are still stacked against these parties. The unionist Labour Party, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are all part of well-funded electoral machines run by London. And TV coverage is slanted in favour of the British parties (who enjoy the lion's share of coverage on the UK-wide channels).

Nonetheless, people are coming to the conclusion that this could be the year Scotland votes for a pro-independence administration in the Scottish Parliament. If that happens then a referendum will follow, with independence happening soon after a positive vote.

Of course, if the pro-independence parties fail to reach over half the votes then the SNP would require the support of the Lib Dems to form an administration.

Naturally they are playing political hard ball and ruling out any deal on a referendum. However, seasoned observers sense that they have become tired of their Labour allies and would quite like to form a new administration with the SNP.

The Lib Dems are a federalist party. While they don't support independence they do support more powers for the Scottish Parliament. They also favour a local income tax, which is SNP policy as well. In these circumstances it is likely that the Lib Dems would eventually accept a referendum on independence.

There is a new-found confidence in the independence movement. The referendum group Independence First held a successful pro-independence demonstration last September and is planning another large march and rally on 31st March this year. The logic is indisputable. If support for independence outweighs support for devolution then why not call a referendum on it? If the unionists believe that their case is better why not put it to the public vote?

Independence activists are increasingly turning to the internet to promote their message. Blogs and pro-independence websites are prolific and almost all of the net coverage of independence is overwhelmingly positive.

The independence cause is of course helped because it can appeal to both the right and left of politics. Want rid of nuclear weapons? Want to end the illegal occupation of Iraq? Independence can contribute to both of these objectives.

Want a republic? A socialist or social democratic society? Well, independence offers that opportunity. Want to play a larger role in the EU or leave it altogether? Both sides can be accommodated in the short-term with independence. Want smaller government? Less taxes? Such sentiments can be ameliorated with independence as well. In fact independence can mean anything to anybody, making it an extremely difficult argument to defeat. With independence, Scots would have the freedom to choose their own government which would have all of the powers Westminster currently holds over Scotland. And it is this attractive prospect that is pulling people in from all corners to the independence cause, including the unlikely figure of the former unionist and Conservative historian Michael Fry whose in-depth historical studies of the British union have led him to the conclusion that independence is in Scotland's best interests.

The unionists' financial scaremongering over imagined deficits is based on politically manipulated figures. They have provided no good reasons why Scots are uniquely incompetent to run their own affairs. Even the Conservatives have made positive noises about fiscal autonomy.

British Labour is pinning their future recovery hopes on Gordon Brown. However, he is not popular in England despite making a number of embarrassing attempts to align himself more closely to their voters.

He has also made a number of opportunistic remarks about the British identity which seem designed to try to negate English discomfort at a Scottish Prime Minister. Current polling figures indicate that English voters might actually prefer Scottish independence to a Scottish PM as interest in their own English identity has risen post-Scottish and Welsh devolution.

Brown of course faces a new threat at UK level in David Cameron, who increasingly looks like the man who will win in middle England. However, he and his party remain deeply unpopular in Scotland where the Scottish people still have harsh memories of the Thatcher government.

Neither Brown or Blair appear to have any genuine interest in Scotland while obviously their glove puppet Jack McConnell is becoming increasingly desperate. Recently a Labour spokesman admitted that no-one knows who the Labour First Minister is and that they will have to fight a wholly negative campaign to try and defeat the SNP.

This has worked before. However, the Scottish people are not fools and the Scottish Parliament has allowed the SNP the credibility to make further advances. The SNP leader Alex Salmond, who is currently a member of the Westminster Parliament, has proved to be a much more popular and credible figure than the increasingly out of touch Blair.

If Labour do run their threatened negative campaign then the most likely outcome is that their own voters will be disillusioned and stay at home.

After Labour's move to the right under Blair their supporters are much less motivated than they used to be. Independence supporters are used to their negativity and are likely to ignore it.

The supporters of independence are more excited about this election than ever before. This means that the Scottish parties on the 300th anniversary of the union could easily have a golden opportunity to end it once and for all.

In short, watch out for fireworks from Scotland this year.

Joe Middleton is Lothians spokesman for Independence First